Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 2.312179 2.447348 2.594500 2.768257 2.970128 3.200327 3.487434
2025-09-14 2.107478 2.267379 2.448283 2.671811 2.946292 3.280948 3.735391
2025-09-21 2.009167 2.188957 2.398608 2.667480 3.013820 3.462933 4.127148
2025-09-28 1.910659 2.098980 2.323074 2.617965 3.011144 3.545450 4.393026
2025-10-05 1.878028 2.083665 2.334435 2.675186 3.150243 3.838482 5.050128
2025-10-12 1.860773 2.084455 2.363893 2.756192 3.329697 4.223211 6.019336
2025-10-19 1.809375 2.038344 2.328515 2.744067 3.370094 4.394168 6.668012
2025-10-26 1.770249 2.005270 2.307340 2.748656 3.434458 4.617229 7.577603
2025-11-02 1.715291 1.948818 2.251286 2.698099 3.404776 4.662179 8.063747
2025-11-09 1.675094 1.909809 2.216586 2.675778 3.417728 4.790637 8.922610
2025-11-16 1.640617 1.876786 2.188174 2.660319 3.439643 4.941437 10.055430
2025-11-23 1.608102 1.845015 2.159805 2.642634 3.455224 5.082337 11.406477
2025-11-30 1.586660 1.828484 2.153572 2.661077 3.541640 5.419795 14.931305
2025-12-07 1.533655 1.767487 2.081872 2.572766 3.424805 5.243470 14.486677
2025-12-14 1.509717 1.745193 2.064351 2.568907 3.464075 5.468540 18.724034
2025-12-21 1.474817 1.706837 2.022289 2.523389 3.420138 5.467631 20.912238
2025-12-28 1.470720 1.710442 2.040664 2.576114 3.571165 6.055855 63.278492
2026-01-04 1.472492 1.722033 2.070973 2.650530 3.778116 6.953583 NaN
2026-01-11 1.451304 1.700749 2.051512 2.639427 3.803972 7.255211 NaN
2026-01-18 1.435208 1.686128 2.041400 2.643646 3.863959 7.736434 NaN
2026-01-25 1.407091 1.653768 2.003422 2.597237 3.804982 7.682801 NaN
2026-02-01 1.386688 1.631914 1.980756 2.576720 3.803656 7.899824 NaN
2026-02-08 1.368761 1.613154 1.962200 2.562499 3.815540 8.196603 NaN